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The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations
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Sales rank 55,739
Customers rating (based on 187 reviews)
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“No one in this world, so far as I know, has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people.” —H. L. Mencken H. L. Mencken was wrong.In this endlessly fascinating book, New Yorker columnist James Surowiecki explores a deceptively simple idea that has profound implications: large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant—better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future.This seemingly counterintuitive notion has endless and major ramifications for how businesses operate, how knowledge is advanced, how economies are (or should be) organized and how we live our daily lives. With seemingly boundless erudition and in delightfully clear prose, Surowiecki ranges across fields as diverse as popular culture, psychology, ant biology, economic behaviorism, artificial intelligence, military history and political theory to show just how this principle operates in the real world. Despite the sophistication of his arguments, Surowiecki presents them in a wonderfully entertaining manner. The examples he uses are all down-to-earth, surprising, and fun to ponder. Why is the line in which you’re standing always the longest? Why is it that you can buy a screw anywhere in the world and it will fit a bolt bought ten-thousand miles away? Why is network television so awful? If you had to meet someone in Paris on a specific day but had no way of contacting them, when and where would you meet? Why are there traffic jams? What’s the best way to win money on a game show? Why, when you walk into a convenience store at 2:00 A.M. to buy a quart of orange juice, is it there waiting for you? What do Hollywood mafia movies have to teach us about why corporations exist?The Wisdom of Crowds is a brilliant but accessible biography of an idea, one with important lessons for how we live our lives, select our leaders, conduct our business, and think about our world.
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| Publisher | Doubleday | | Release date | 05/2004 | | Availability | Usually ships in 24 hours | | Edition | Hardcover |
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Heeding The Herd Instinct: In The Wisdom of Crowds, the New Yorker staff writer provocatively argues that, in many circumstances, the group collectively reaches better decisions -- and solves problems more efficiently -- than the smartest man or woman alone (@ Business Week)
Group Rethink: Evidence of collective intelligence is all around us, and New Yorker writer James Surowiecki collects much of it (@ Technology Review)
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 Wisdom for decision-makers in any walk of life
Suroweiki engrossed me from the beginning. Though this book appears to be a collection of anecdotes about how crowds often outthink the experts, it struck me as a blueprint for how decision-makers should harness the power of people. Thus it is a treatise on smart business and marketing, good government, and sound organization management.
As a U.S. Army veteran, the author propelled me to thoughts on how the military could use its people's collective wisdom, something on which I have written extensively:Nine Weeks: a teacher's education in Army Basic Training
Among the most relevant claims from the book is this cogent bit of logic:
"To state the obvious, unless people know what the truth is, it's unlikely they'll make the right decisions. This means being honest about performance. It means being honest about what's not happening. It means being honest about expectations. Unfortunately, there's little evidence that this kind of sharing takes place....One of the things that gets in the way of the exchange of real information is the deep-rooted hostility on the part of bosses to opposition from subordinates. This is the real cost of a top-down approach to decision making: it confers the illusion of perfectability upon the decision makers and encourages everyone else simply to play along. What makes this especially damaging is that people in an organization already have a natural inclination to avoid conflict and potential trouble. It's remarkable, in fact, that in an autocratic organization good information ever surfaces.
It's a book that anyone who has been around people should read.
A subject to keep in mind
Surowiecki brings to the forefront an amazing collection of anecdotes and facts that support his main thesis: crowds 'can' be wise, useful and if carefully crafted, their participation can be spectacularly beneficial.
I've never given much thought about 'diversity,' a term that to me meant a way to give away with discrimination. Surowiecky proves that diversity is one of the necessary ingredients to benefit from a crowd.
I would blankly recommend this book to everyone. To some it may mean a way to apply this knowledge, to others, an understanding of how crowds work (and when they don't) is just intellectually stimulant.
I realize this may sound like an advertisement. I have no disclaimers to make, I have no specific interest or relationship with the author, I just was blown away with the concept.
This is a book I will treasure and re-read again.
 Does nothing but point out the obvious
The Wisdom of Crowds is nothing more than collection of statistical truisms which Surowiecki attempts to explain as some sort of mystical force at work. If you have even the slightest background in statistics, you will find each of his examples of "group intelligence" frustrating and perhaps insulting.
He is right - Any poll for which there is a right anwer, a random group of individuals does seem likely to choose the correct answer by popular vote. This is true even when, individually most of the individuals get it wrong. But is this evidence that groups are smarter than individuals?
To highlight the flawed logic found this book, I'll provide an example in terms of a magic trick:
Suppose I have a deck of cards and place the four aces face down on a table. I then ask a group of 100 people to tell me, by popular vote, which card is the ace of spades. Lets say beforehand, I told just 10 of the people which card was correct and the other 90 guessed at random. Without a doubt, the group would pick the right card almot every time even though 90 percent of the group had no idea. The author would have you believe that this is some sort of mystical group intelligence, or that humans are wired to be smarter in groups.
Unfortunately, there is a much simpler answer: probability. The 10 people who knew the right answer skew the vote making it probable that the group will guess correctly. As I increase the number of people who know the right cardr, the group has a better and better chance of getting it right. This doesnt mean groups are smarter than individuals. In fact, it suggests that a relatively small number of knowledgable people can control the direction of much larger groups.
Reinforced my Faith in the Group Process
Being a huge proponent of teams, I felt compelled to pick up James Surowiecki's book at my local bookstore. I'm also a big fan of his contributions to the Wall Street Journal and The New Yorker. And then a few of my buddies suggested the book. I call this "triangulation," when three completely different events collide. For me, it's like a huge, neon, pulsating arrow saying "read me!"
In a nutshell, this book reinforced my faith in large groups. Surowiecki's premise is this: "Large groups of people are smarter than the elite few, no matter how brilliant - better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future. The intertaining vignettes (similar to Malcolm Gladwell's style in The Tipping Point and Blink, two other wonderful books on collective and individual decision making), Surowiecki describes the conditions for group wisdom (diversity, independence and decentralization) and examples that support his premise. His stories range from popular culture, psychology, biology, economics, artificial intelligence, military history, political theory - a veritable potpourri of instances where the wisdom of crowds flourish as well as flounder. Makes you think a bit differently about all kinds of things including why I have "bad line karma" where the line I am standing in is always the longest.
For over a decade, I have taught others to "trust the team." Now I know why...as well as the three conditions for group wisdom - another version of triangulation. I also have a myriad of everyday examples of how the many are smarter than the few. Now that can restore anyone's faith in group process!
 Bad Implications....
The last thing America needs right now is a mindset that supports the 'crowd' to make our minds up for us. How did that work in 2008-9 stock market crash and housing bubble? In Surowiecki's view, the crowds are right, and we should believe them over any 'bright guy' with a great idea.
The Swedes have a word for this - 'lagom', which means 'good enough'. The U.S. economy wasn't built upon 'lagom', it was built upon 'can-do', which arose from brilliant ideas.......from individuals!!! Crowd thinking may get an accurate answer, as he supports, but that's only 'lagom'.
Interesting read, but concepts to support his case are cherry picked, and contorted away from logical thinking and observation of how crowds really work.
The Death of Management: Restoring Value to the U.S. Economy
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