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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
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Sales rank 6,096
Customers rating (based on 445 reviews)
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“[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church.”–Malcolm Gladwell, The New YorkerFinally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about the markets and the world.This book is about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of business–Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in all of our lives.
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| Publisher | Random House Trade Paperbacks | | Release date | 08/2005 | | Availability | Usually ships in 24 hours | | Edition | Paperback |
| | List price | $17 | | Our price | $11.56 (you save 32.00%) | | Used price | from $3 |
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 An insightful book written in a unique style that challenges superficial thinking
This is an insightful book written in a unique style that challenges superficial thinking about events that some may ascribe a cause and effect relationship but can be more simply seen as an event that is possible within `normal' variability. This is not a fast read. If you enjoy thinking, you will enjoy this book. I had to use a `big' dictionary to understand more fully some of the author's statements. I have a background in chemistry, physics and mathematics, professional experience in process and product design engineering and an amateur, limited but mostly successful experience in investing. My many years of these experiences and those of life are generally consistent with the author's assertions. I would also recommend "The Black Swan" written by the same author. (I bought copies of the Black Swan to give as gifts to thoughtful acquaintances.)
A very insightful book, but the author is too generous with himself
I think that it is important to review a book by concentrating on its coherency, strength of its ideas and originality. Whether a person agrees with the author or not should not be a factor. This is why I give this book four stars although I do not completely agree with the author.
This book raises some very interesting points and is in many ways an eye opener. Bookshops are filled with books about the "characteristics" of successful people. In business articles and books we always read about the leader that helped transform the company. We read about the stars of the company and how their attitudes helped them to lead a successful life. N. Taleb shows us that success depends on many factors that we don't control. The author also shows us that luck plays a larger role than we think. The author also raises an important point when he concentrates on the magnitude of a scenario no matter how low its probability is. Most people ignore low probability scenarios although if they do happen, and they often happen, the consequences will be severe.
That said, I think that the author is too extreme is his views. He seems to attribute everything to randomness. The real problem is when he takes his theories about the financial market (which are extremely true) and tries to implement them onto broader subjects. Yes the financial market is chaotic, yes it is unpredictable and yes it certainly is no science, but life is not the same as the financial market. However, the author managed to defend his opinion well, even though he didn't convince me.
The reason I give this book four stars although it was very hard to put down once you pick it up is that Nassim Taleb is simply the greatest fan of.....Nassim Taleb. I was really amazed at how much the author is in love with himself. Nassim Taleb is clearly well read and he manages to pull ideas from a broad range of subjects, but he keeps reminding us that he reads many topics. We are constantly reading how he is a "voracious" reader of medical journals. He also finds the time to tell us that at one time he had little furniture because every time he went out to buy some he would end up buying books. Again and again we read how he has a stack of books in his house, and how he reads anything that he gets his hands one. The author also quotes many poems (which are in French so we know he speaks French) and inserts book titles in places where there was no need to do so.
Mr. Taleb has written an excellent book. Once you start reading you just have to go on. I agree with many things he said but he is too extreme for my taste. I admire his knowledge of many subjects, but he could have kept his love affair with himself a secret.
Will challenge the way you think
If you want read a book that challenges the way that you perceive the world then this book has to be recommended. Nassim Taleb has a unique perspective on the world that should make most people sit up, take notice and ask why.
It is also probably a book that needs to be read more than once to really extract the essence of the ideas simply because they are so different from the main stream. The books is well written and easy to read but can invoke challenging thought at times.
We live in a world where we seek to manage the expected and routine however Taleb masterfully demonstrates that the unexpected and unpredictable are what really has the greatest impact on our lives. From financial markets to careers the unpredictable and unexpected are major influencers of the outcome yet we not only tend to overlook their impact and ignore then all together. This book provides you with a unique insight into this hidden world which is almost always right in front of us.
If you want a book that will challenge the way that think about the world around you, then this is one of those books
Getting past the condescension is most of the battle
Nicholas Taleb can be awfully condescending, indeed. The backhanded dismissal of many persons and ideas, sometimes to the point of scoffing, can put off the average reader. E.g., his equating "work ethic" with "inefficient mediocrity" (p. 124). Still, persist through all this and get to his quite valuable insights. Even simple, semi-obvious ones like, wealth doesn't contribute as much to well-being as does the path getting there.
He correctly points out that, in spite of most of us knowing better, we easily (and loudly sometimes) see patterns after the fact or event, whereas seeing them before the event would be next to impossible. Almost trivial, except that this behavior poisons far too much thinking. Taleb's logic then extends the point to show that the "new" is rarely the "excellent," and that inventions do not necessarily imply progress. The same applies to information (witness much of the witless journalism). He saw such behavior in his extensive securities trading career, to the usual detriment of his clientele.
There are many references to "one case does not prove a point." Also, see an extended discussion of "relative anchoring" as regards how people value things (section "Where is Napoleon When We Need Him," p. 190). A related idea discusses the inverse relationship of self-imposed pressure to happiness (p. 258), an idea with which one could legitimately quarrel.
This excellent book still has things to become irritated over. Taleb often makes "so-and-so will be coming/discussed later" comments. This device, used effectively, keeps readers glued; used too often, keeps readers annoyed. Remembering from chapter 4, something talked about in chapter 11 can be hard on the poor soul who didn't write the book! Be aware, too, that the author will use a double negative in a stretched-out sentence sometimes, a tedium sort of like that chapter 11-4 problem just mentioned. Get the book anyway, especially if you are a stock or options trader. You will think five times before doing any more of that stuff. He speaks truly when he tells us that only a small fraction of traders survive, but almost 100% of financial advisers do. Yes.
great supplementary reading in addition to Black Swan
Clearly the book wasn't meant to be comprehensive but in my opinion it's still a great read after reading Black Swan.
Many of the arguements are very similar: they are presented in slightly different manner, and some of anecdotes are pretty funny and engaging most of the time. Not surprisingly the idea of the book Black Swan could also be found in this book.
Finally, knowing the idea of chapter 6 on skewness and asymmetry is already worth the price you paid for the book.
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